Reorder Forecasting Worksheet: Predict Your Next Packaging PO Without Spreadsheet Hell
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Most warehouses overstock or understock packaging because nobody owns the forecast. The result: cash tied up in racked boxes, OR rush orders at premium freight when you cut it too close. Here's a 10-minute worksheet that fixes both — designed for buyers who don't want a Salesforce-grade demand-planning system.
The 4 numbers you need
For each hero SKU you reorder regularly:
1. Average monthly burn rate
Pull the last 90 days of carton consumption from your warehouse system (or count outbound shipments × cartons-per-shipment). Divide by 3 to get monthly average. Round up — it's better to overestimate than underestimate.
Example: 6,000 cartons consumed in 90 days = 2,000/month average burn rate.
2. Current stock on hand
Physical count or warehouse system count. Don't trust last month's number — count today.
Example: 5,500 cartons on hand right now.
3. Lead time on your supplier
From PO confirmation to dock arrival. For SurePack: 6-8 weeks (45-60 days). For Uline-style suppliers: 2-7 days.
Example: SurePack lead time = 60 days (worst case).
4. Safety buffer (extra days you want as cushion)
How many days of stock-out cushion do you want? For mid-volume operations, 30 days is standard. For seasonal/spiky demand, 45-60 days. For ultra-stable demand with backup supplier, 15-20 days.
Example: 30 days safety buffer.
The forecast formulas
Days of cover (how long current stock lasts)
Days of cover = Stock on hand ÷ (Burn rate ÷ 30)
Example: 5,500 ÷ (2,000 ÷ 30) = 5,500 ÷ 66.7 = 82 days of cover
Reorder trigger point (when to place next PO)
Trigger threshold = Lead time + Safety buffer
Example: 60 + 30 = 90 days of cover remaining = trigger PO
If your current days-of-cover is BELOW your trigger threshold, place the PO today.
If your current days-of-cover is ABOVE the trigger, you're fine — calendar a reminder for when you'll hit trigger.
Optimal reorder quantity
Most buyers reorder 90-180 days of stock per PO — enough to cover lead time + safety + a buffer for forecast error. The formula:
Reorder quantity = (Burn rate × cycle months) + Safety buffer × Burn rate ÷ 30
Example for quarterly cycle: (2,000 × 3) + (30 × 2,000 ÷ 30) = 6,000 + 2,000 = 8,000 cartons per PO
Putting it all together — a worked example
| Variable | SP-22146 | SP-12126 | SP-955 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly burn rate | 2,000 | 3,500 | 1,200 |
| Stock on hand | 5,500 | 12,000 | 3,000 |
| Days of cover | 82 | 103 | 75 |
| Lead time + safety | 90 | 90 | 90 |
| Action | ORDER NOW | Hold (13 days) | ORDER NOW |
| Suggested PO qty | 8,000 | 14,000 | 4,800 |
The 5-minute monthly ritual
First Monday of every month, do this:
- Pull burn rate for last 30 days from your warehouse system
- Count current stock on each hero SKU
- Divide stock by daily burn → days of cover
- Compare days-of-cover to your 90-day trigger
- If under trigger → place PO. If over → calendar a check-in for when you'll hit it.
That's it. 5 minutes a month, prevents stockouts, prevents overstocking, makes you look organized to your CFO.
Or — just let SurePack run it for you
If this still feels like more spreadsheet work than you have time for, we run reorder reminders for every customer. Tell us:
- Your hero SKUs
- Approximate annual volume per SKU
- Your reorder cycle preference (monthly / quarterly / on-demand)
30 days before you'd hit your trigger threshold, Ted pings you with a "ready to confirm next reorder?" email. You confirm or adjust the quantity. We run the PO. Done.
You don't have to remember the worksheet. We do.
Set up SurePack reorder reminders →
Questions? Ted at SurePack: 702-618-9018 · sales@surepackusa.com